Problem on odds

Saw this very interesting board in the GNT semi finals (spots approximate). Is there a way to pull lin files so that it is easy for readers to follow. Strong club and relay auction leading to 7H by the North Hand. No interference except for a dbl of 5D by W.

(North Hand)

S AKQT8x

H AQ9x

D x

C QJ

opp (South hand)

S X

H KJxxx

D Ax

C ATxxx

You are in 7H (from the long spade hand) and receive the lead of D Q. When you play a heart to the Ace, your RHO discards a diamond.

Are the odds better to just run spades and hope for jx or 3-3 and if not finesse in clubs or does RHO showing out change the odds substantially in favour of taking a first round spade finesse and equally does the club finesse become a much lower probability proposition.

 

 

5 thoughts on “Problem on odds

  • Profile gravatar of Sandeep Thakral
    July 26, 2017 at 3:55 PM
    Permalink

    In light of 5D dbl on something like KT, I’m of the opinion that Club finesse is more likely to succeed than not. With both minor suit kings, and both majors being bid by opponents, West has no real reason to prefer a diamond lead to club.
    With this in mind, I’ll play spades off the top, with club finesse as a backup

  • July 26, 2017 at 4:32 PM
    Permalink

    It is not quite as stated — you cannot test spades, and fall back on the Club finesse, if the spades are not good because the diamond lead has damaged the delicate entry position — and therefore, you should really have taken a D ruff first before playing heart to the Ace to have gotten to that position (3S + 6H + 1D + 3C or 6H + 5S + …)! Had you done that — the development of the 6th trick in hearts with a ruff — it would certainly be better to draw trumps, test Spades, and then try the Clubs, rather than just taking the spade finesse.

    But in the present situation, if the spades don’t come home, even if the club finesse is in, you may not be ok. The slight changes to the apriori odds in both the suits also favors being more aggressive in the spade suit. But…it is an avoidable situation to find yourself in!

  • July 26, 2017 at 10:58 PM
    Permalink

    Sorry I messed up the diagram. The north hand is declarer and DQ is led in response to a dbl of 5d in a relay type auction

  • Profile gravatar of Rajeshwar Tewari
    August 3, 2017 at 5:45 PM
    Permalink

    I assume that when u say RHO shows out u mean west. If that is the case then u can test both as long as there is no top ruff in spades. Start cashing spades discarding clubs from dummy. If at any point it becomes clear that spades are coming home (spade jack dropping doubleton or spades 3-3), just draw the remaining trumps for 5H, 6S and 2 aces. If east ruffs (say 3rd spade), overruff, draw trumps ending in hand, ruff a spade, ruff a diamond, cash spades and then take club finesse.

  • August 4, 2017 at 4:31 PM
    Permalink

    Yes, Tewari’s line does not even need the C10, if Spades are no worse than 4-2.

Leave a Reply