The pendulum – Summer National Pairs – Session 3

What now?  Do we take the sacrifice? We can expect to get about 8 tricks, 6 spades, possibly one H ruff in dummy, and a stray trick somewhere. So at 1100 sacrifice could be profitable if the slam is making. But the sacrifice will show profit only if the field is bidding the slam. Otherwise there won’t be much difference between -1370 and -1100. The auction sounded like it would get crowded, and the slam may not be found very often. There was also the possibility that the one side card partner should have could be the setting trick. On balance I decided not to sacrifice – Wrong!! The slam was cold, and defending was worth 46%. -1100 would be worth 80%

Partner had 5 spades and Kxxx of hearts. So the side card had no contribution to defence.