Any hope?
Pd plays the ♣ 2 on your Ace – UDCA, and declarer follows.
What now. You can expect to get at most 2 clubs, one spade, and hopefully the HK. Where will the setting trick come from.
If pd has ♦ Q 3 cards or less, there doesn’t seem to be any place for ♦ loser to go, so lets ignore that possibility. What if declarer has ♦ Q, or a singleton ♦ .
In that case the setting trick has to come from trumps. Again if pd has ♥ A, its not going anywhere. But can pd have that? If he does, that wd leave declarer at most with ♥ J, ♠ Q and ♦ Q . Quite unlikely unless he has 6 hearts or more.
Lets think about when pd has neither ♦ Q nor ♥ A – or has ♦ Q , but declarer has singleton.
If declarer has ♦ Qx or better, there’s absolutely nothing we can do. So let’s assume he has singleton. He has at most 2 ♣ given pd’s 3♣ bid, and if singleton ♦ , that would leave him 10 cards in majors. If those majors are 4♠ 6♥ , only way we are really beating is if pd has ♥ A. But if he has 5-5…
Could he have 5-5? You’d expect him to bid 1♠ instead of 1♥ so that seems unlikely. Still, there is no other holding where your play makes a difference. But if does have 5-5, your playing a 3rd round of spade might cause a bit of trouble, although you don’t see how if he has AQJT between two hands, and you better hope he does, because otherwise his correct play wd be to play the ♥ A.
Anyway, you play ♠ A and another – and pd follows with Ten and Queen. Declarer runs the HQ to your King, and you play a 3rd round of spade after cashing your club winner. This causes a strange kind of problem. Lets look at the full hand.
Ya, well defended. But shouldn’t South have banged the HA? Deciding to lose 2C+1S+1H? and get a whiff of it as it seemed West was cashing out.
Otherwise a great hand to instruct on eliminating various defenses and hope that the cards are such(5M+5M) even though the evidence says something else.
Declarer's best option is probably to just leave trumps alone. Play Diamond ace and DJ, discarding the losing club is perhaps best. Lets say they continue 3rd spade, you ruff with queen and if they are able to overruff, you have a claim. Ruff the diamond return high, draw trumps using J and T, and throw 2 spade losers on good diamonds.
If they don't overruff, you have to do a bit of work. West is known to be 4 spades, atleast 2 diamonds, and likely 5 clubs. If that is the case you can play HA and another. If west has 3 hearts, HA H still works. You can ruff with the Ten, cross to hand with a club ruff, draw the last trump with Jack and claim – your 5th spade is now good.
What if East has K9x Hearts and has refused to overruff? If that is the case, HA H won't work. East can win the ten with king and return the 9 locking you in hand with a spade to lose. If E has K9x H you need to finesse a H, and ruff the spades good yourself.
Which? I'd say HA and back. If East is good enough to not only not overruff with K9x, but to do it without giving it away by pausing – he/she probably deserves to win the board 🙂